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Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to escalate to a infrequent category five cyclone as it veers in the direction of Jamaica, bringing dangerous sudden floods and rock falls.

The hurricane, which recorded winds of up to 195 km/h as of 0600 Greenwich Mean Time, is presently veering north-west in the Caribbean region and is expected to hit the coast by Tuesday, based on data from weather experts.

Advisories of blackouts and disruption to utilities have been issued as this storm produces up to 76cm of rain and sea level surges as high as 13ft above normal levels. "Seek shelter now," inhabitants have been urged.

This hurricane is the 13th named hurricane in the current Atlantic storm period, which typically ends in late autumn.

Category Five Cyclone Threat

A highest-level cyclone is the most intense classification, with wind speeds of at least 157mph.

Although this storm is set to reduce in intensity to a category four hurricane before arriving at the island, authorities said there was "very little practical difference in the overall impacts" upon making contact with land, and that the hurricane will be "equally strong" when it impacts the nation.

Critical Readiness Measures

With storm-force gusts and precipitation anticipated well in advance well before it crosses central Jamaica - possibly even the capital, Kingston - alerts indicate that "readiness efforts must be accelerated".

"A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening rapid water accumulation and multiple mudslides," urged meteorological officials.

The nation's leader Andrew Holness commented: "I know that there are countless citizens who are concerned, who are very concerned, and rightfully so: you should be concerned.

"But the best way to handle worry and any apprehension and anxiety is to stay ready."

Locals are being instructed to secure their homes with sandbags and wooden boards, and to stock up on basic necessities.

Regional Effects

Advisories are also active for areas in the neighboring country encompassing the primary urban center, the neighboring country and eastern Cuba, where the hurricane is anticipated to bring similar effects by the midweek period.

Mudslides already being caused by the hurricane have already killed two in the country, according to emergency services.

Expected Trajectory

Melissa is projected to cross Cuba by Wednesday before passing across the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic.

By the moment it reaches Cuba, it is predicted to have reduced to a Category 3 storm.

Climate Context

Although it is difficult to connect specific storms to environmental shifts, researchers say it is making weather phenomena more common and more extreme.

Increased sea temperatures create more moisture in the environment, contributing to the formation of hurricanes.

Prior to the beginning of this year's Caribbean cyclone season, weather organizations forecast above-normal activity, citing elevated ocean temperatures and possible enhanced seasonal rains around African coastal regions - where Atlantic storms often form.