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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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